India’s 37 GW ultra supercritical pipeline to support rising renewable demand

Thermal power remains central to India’s electricity system. It continues to anchor grid stability even as renewable capacity grows at a rapid pace. According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), India’s total installed capacity reached 500,889 MW by the end of September 2025. Thermal power accounted for 244,800 MW, or 48.87 per cent of the total. Renewable energy, including solar, wind, small hydro, and biomass, reached a 39.37 per cent share. Hydropower, nuclear power, and other smaller segments cover the remaining portion. The declining percentage of thermal capacity is notable because the absolute capacity has not reduced. Renewable additions have simply grown at a faster pace. India is expected to add nearly 12 GW of thermal power capacity in the current financial year (FY26).

The distribution of thermal capacity across the three major ownership segments remains even. The central sector holds 81,988 MW. The state sector follows with 81,789 MW. The private sector is only marginally lower at 81,023 MW. This balance, however, disappears when one examines the pipeline of projects under construction. The central sector is preparing to carry most of the future baseload responsibility. The gap widens further when the capacity addition schedule up to 2030 is broken down.

The tentative year-wise thermal addition plan from FY 2025–26 to FY 2030–31 stands at 37,620 MW. FY 2025–26 is expected to deliver 9,420 MW. Additions fall sharply for the next few years and rise again to a peak of 13,700 MW in FY 2029–30. This back-loading reflects a pipeline where several large projects are only now entering advanced stages. It also reflects the long gestation period of land acquisition, environmental clearances, and main plant construction.

The central sector leads with 19,680 MW planned. This is more than half the entire pipeline. The state sector is at 11,540 MW and the private sector at 4,800 MW. Public developers like NTPC, NLC India, and SJVN are taking on the bulk of the risk in building new coal capacity. Their project pipelines are long, backed by assured supply arrangements, and supported by central agencies in procurement and clearances. The private sector, by contrast, is showing limited appetite for new coal generation. Fuel supply concerns, financing costs, lender caution, and unresolved issues from the last coal expansion cycle have created a slow and selective approach among private developers.

The under-construction fleet and the shift to efficient technologies

The CEA reports identify 26 thermal power projects under construction as of September 2025. These projects together include 50 generating units with a combined capacity of 37,620 MW. Every unit in the pipeline is based on Supercritical or Ultra Supercritical technology. No subcritical unit is under construction. This marks a decisive shift in India’s coal fleet. Higher pressure and temperature designs improve efficiency and reduce emissions per unit of electricity. Although these plants still burn coal, the technology transition reflects a national strategy to reduce carbon intensity even within conventional generation.

Ultra Supercritical units now dominate the pipeline. Sixteen projects, accounting for 32 units and 25,040 MW, fall in this category. The central sector contributes the largest share at 17,040 MW. The private sector follows with 6,400 MW. The state sector contributes 1,600 MW. Several of the central sector’s flagship projects, like NTPC’s Lara Stage II, Singrauli Stage III, and Talcher Stage III, are all based on USC technology. The adoption of these designs signals a push toward uniform high-efficiency standards for any new coal capacity being added to the grid.

The central sector’s leadership in new thermal buildout

The central sector has become the primary driver of new thermal construction. It has 12 projects with 26 units under active development. Together they add up to 19,680 MW.  

NTPC remains at the core of this expansion. Its ongoing projects span Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and other states. The Patratu Super Thermal Power Project in Jharkhand is a key part of this plan. Unit 1 of the Phase I development entered commercial operation on November 5, 2025. The NTPC Group’s total installed and commercial capacity has now reached 84,849 MW. Other NTPC projects, such as Talcher and Lara, are at different stages of construction. Some units are moving forward while others continue to face issues related to land acquisition, ash dyke work, or contractor mobilisation.

NLC India’s Talabira project in Odisha is another major central sector undertaking. It is a 2,400 MW pithead station expected to use coal from the Talabira mines. The project’s progress depends heavily on land availability. By September 2025, only 692 acres out of the required 1694.5 acres were in possession. The gap is large enough to affect the commissioning timeline.

SJVN’s Buxar plant in Bihar, built by Larsen and Toubro, has moved past earlier delays linked to land acquisition for rail connectivity and the labour and material constraints during the COVID-19 period. The project has now reached a key milestone. Unit 1 of the 1,320 MW Buxar Thermal Power Project has entered commercial operation. The 660 MW unit has been declared in commercial service under Regulation 30 of the SEBI Listing Regulations. The plant is expected to strengthen power supply in Bihar and the wider eastern region.

The Damodar Valley Corporation’s Koderma Phase II and Raghunathpur Phase II are at early stages, with physical progress below five per cent. These projects will not contribute significantly to capacity additions in the short term.

The state sector’s uneven progress across regions

State sector thermal projects cover 11,540 MW across ten projects and sixteen units. The performance varies widely by state. Some projects are close to completion with strong execution. Others have suffered long delays that stretch over several years.

Telangana’s Yadadri project is the most significant state sector development at the moment. The plant has five units of 800 MW each. Units 1 and 2 were commissioned earlier in 2025. Units 3, 4, and 5 are in advanced stages with turbine and boiler erection crossing ninety per cent for some units. The project has not been free of challenges. Shortages of skilled manpower and diversion of components from Unit 5 to other units affected timelines. Despite this, progress remains the strongest among large state sector builds.

Tamil Nadu’s projects present a different picture. Ennore SEZ, North Chennai Stage III, and Udangudi have all faced severe delays. The Ennore project, in particular, has suffered due to sub-vendor issues, especially with Simplex Infrastructures. The North Chennai unit is nearly complete, but technical problems like turbine blade deposition and pending flue gas desulphurisation installation are slowing final commissioning. Udangudi has been affected by legal and contractual disputes. These issues have pushed completion dates far beyond original schedules.

Other states show mixed early-stage progress. West Bengal’s Sagardighi expansion is advancing, though slowly. Gujarat’s Ukai project, Maharashtra’s Koradi, and Chhattisgarh’s Korba West are in preparatory phases with key activities like boiler and turbine erection yet to begin. For many of these state utilities, financial stress, vendor performance, and administrative clearances remain persistent hurdles.

The private sector’s cautious re-entry

The private sector has only four active projects under construction, adding up to 6,400 MW. All of them belong to Adani Power. These projects include expansions at Mahan and Raipur, or Raigarh. All of them are based on Ultra Supercritical technology and show progress between zero and sixty per cent. The concentration of projects under a single company reflects a selective re-entry into coal after a decade of stalled private development. Most private companies remain cautious due to unresolved issues from the previous thermal expansion cycle, including stranded assets, loan defaults, and regulatory uncertainties over power purchase agreements and fuel linkages.

A five year record of underachieved capacity addition

Thermal capacity addition has repeatedly fallen short of annual plans. Achievement rates have ranged between 23 per cent and 46 per cent. The reasons vary by year, but the broader trend shows structural bottlenecks. Developers struggle with clearances. EPC contractors face capacity constraints. Transmission readiness lags. Fuel supply and land issues create delays that accumulate from one year to the next.

For FY 2025–26, the target is 12,860 MW. By September 2025, 5,090 MW had been commissioned. This includes units from NTPC and the first two units of Yadadri. The remaining 7,770 MW depends on projects that are either in late stages or dealing with execution challenges. Whether the annual target will be met remains uncertain.

The shadow fleet of stalled and stressed projects

There are 24 projects on hold or unlikely to be commissioned with a combined capacity of 21,905 MW. Most belong to the private sector.  

Many projects are under insolvency or liquidation through the National Company Law Tribunal. Plants like Bhuvanapadu in Andhra Pradesh and Siriya in Bihar are undergoing asset sales. Some projects, like Akbarpur and Sasan, have been acquired by new players, including JSW Energy, Vedanta, and Adani Power. These acquisitions are expected to revive the plants, but commissioning timelines now stretch to the next decade.

Other projects stalled due to cancelled power purchase agreements or issues with coal blocks. NLC’s Barsingsar and Bithnokri plants in Rajasthan were affected after discoms withdrew agreements due to cost escalations and problems with linked mines. In several cases, land acquisition delays and pending regulatory clearances have frozen construction for years. The combined capacity of these stalled projects represents a large pool of locked investment and reflects the risks faced by developers without firm PPAs, stable fuel sources, or financial closure.

Persistent issues slowing India’s thermal buildout

Across all categories of projects, several recurring problems appear. Contractor performance is one of the most prominent. Delays in mobilisation, slow supply of materials, and weak sub-vendor networks have affected many plants. These delays push project timelines far beyond the planned commissioning dates.

Land acquisition continues to be a major obstacle. Several developers are operating with partial land possession, which affects activities like ash dyke development, construction of switchyards, and erection of rail corridors. This is evident in projects like Talabira, Buxar, and Talcher.

Regulatory clearances also play a role. Developers have faced delays in securing environmental clearances, forest clearances, and state pollution control board approvals. These delays often cascade through the schedule.

Transmission and railway readiness are also barriers. Delays in power evacuation systems or railway sidings can hold up commissioning even when the main plant is ready. This exposes developers to additional financing costs and operational uncertainty.

India’s thermal transition and the path ahead

The thermal sector is undergoing a realignment. On one side is a sizeable pipeline of efficient supercritical and Ultra Supercritical capacity that is intended to support the grid as renewable energy expands. On the other side is a long list of stalled and delayed projects, along with a history of unmet annual capacity targets.

The central sector has become the anchor for new coal-based capacity. It has the largest pipeline, the most advanced technology deployment, and the strongest execution capabilities. State utilities show mixed performance while the private sector remains selective and cautious. The heavy dependence on a few EPC players and unresolved issues around land and clearances create risks that will shape future timelines.

As the country heads toward 2030, the reliability of thermal power will continue to matter. High renewable penetration requires firming capacity, frequency support, and flexible operations. Coal plants remain essential for these functions. The CEA’s monitoring process now plays a crucial role because timely identification of delays and risks can improve coordination among ministries, state governments, developers, and contractors.

India’s energy transition depends not only on building more renewable capacity but also on ensuring that the thermal fleet supporting the system is modern, efficient, and reliable. The coming years will test whether the advanced thermal pipeline under construction can deliver on time and whether the sector can finally overcome the execution challenges that have defined the last decade.

The featured photograph is for representation only.