China could cut 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2030

China’s carbon emissions may decline by 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030 if 17.5 trillion yuan ($2.5 trillion) in green investment is mobilised over the next five years, according to a research note by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) cited by Bloomberg.

CICC projects that China’s emissions will peak at 11.3 billion tonnes in 2028. The country currently accounts for about one-third of global carbon emissions.

Beijing is expected to announce its climate targets for 2035 ahead of the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Brazil. These targets are likely to cover carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the national economy.

China’s energy transition faces obstacles, including a rebound in coal-fired generation. Decarbonisation efforts in heavy industry have also slowed due to lower demand and ongoing trade tensions.

The CICC note recommends increasing annual green investment by 40% to 3.5 trillion yuan to meet the target of cutting carbon intensity by 65% from 2005 levels by 2030. Funding would need to support renewable energy, electrification, and industrial restructuring.

Wind and solar capacity are projected to rise from 1,700 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to more than 2,800 GW by 2030. Hydropower and nuclear generation could grow by 38 GW and 57 GW, respectively. Battery-based energy storage is expected to expand by 188 gigawatt-hours (GWh).

The electrification ratio is forecast to reach 35% by 2030, with clean energy expected to account for half of total power generation.