What is changing in India’s transmission landscape

For years, the Tariff-Based Competitive Bidding (TBCB) route for transmission projects followed a predictable pattern. Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PowerGrid) would win the majority of projects. Private players would win some. The overall balance remained broadly stable.

The latest data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) suggests that the pattern is changing. Consider the under-construction pipeline. Between April 2025 and April 2026, private transmission service providers increased their portfolio value by nearly Rs 22,000 crore, a 24% expansion in a single year. Over the same period, PowerGrid’s under-construction portfolio declined by about Rs 2,900 crore.

The transformation capacity numbers are even more striking. Private players added over 30,000 MVA of substation capacity to their under-construction pipeline, while PowerGrid’s declined by nearly 24,000 MVA. These movements represent a structural rebalancing of India’s transmission construction landscape.

However, the underlying shift is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. The story is not about any single player losing or winning. It is about a market that is diversifying, maturing, and becoming more competitive. 

What the pipeline actually shows

The CEA’s monthly progress reports track every under-construction TBCB project in the country. The comparison between April 2025 and April 2026 reveals several clear trends.

The total projects under construction remained unchanged at 84. However, the composition shifted. Private players now account for 41 projects, up from 39. PowerGrid’s count declined from 45 to 43.

The value distribution changed more significantly. Private players’ pipeline value rose from approximately Rs 90,800 crore to over Rs 1.12 lakh crore. PowerGrid’s declined from about Rs 1.25 lakh crore to Rs 1.22 lakh crore.

PowerGrid’s share of the active TBCB pipeline by value declined from 58% to 52% in a single year. Its share by transformation capacity fell from 63% to 54%.

PowerGrid remains the single largest player by a wide margin. However, the trend is evident. Private capital is entering transmission construction at a pace not seen previously, and the pipeline data reflects that shift in real time. 

Who is driving the change

The private side of the TBCB pipeline is no longer limited to a handful of familiar names. The competitive landscape has expanded significantly.

Adani Transmission has emerged as the most consequential challenger, with major projects including the Rs 22,000 crore Bhadla-Fatehpur HVDC bipole and several large Khawda and Gujarat schemes. But Adani is not alone. New entrants have appeared in the April 2026 data that were absent or marginal a year earlier.

Dineshchandra R. Agrawal Infracon Pvt Ltd (DRAIPL) has won two major projects: the Rajasthan Renewable Energy Zone Phase IV Part B, valued at over Rs 6,300 crore, and the Raghanesda Renewable Energy Transmission project worth approximately Rs 2,100 crore. Its total under-construction exposure is around Rs 8,500 crore. This is a significant new player backed by project-level private equity, and its entry into the market is notable.

Shivalaya Construction Limited (SCL) has won the Ananthapur II Phase II project valued at over Rs 3,300 crore, a 3 GW renewable energy integration project in Andhra Pradesh that includes a 765 kV corridor into Karnataka. The terrain is challenging, and winning this against established players indicates genuine execution capability.

HGIEL has secured the Angul Sundargarh Transmission project in Odisha valued at over Rs 400 crore. It is a smaller project but represents a strategic entry point into the eastern region market.

The increase in active private bidders from roughly six or seven players to nine or ten has direct implications for award distribution. Even if PowerGrid’s competitiveness remains unchanged, its expected share of new awards will naturally decline as more players participate. 

What established private players are doing

The new entrants are joining a field of established private transmission developers that continue to maintain a strong presence.

Sterlite Power remains active across multiple geographies and project types. Its Ananthapur II Phase I project is valued at over Rs 4,600 crore. Its North Eastern Region expansion project adds another Rs 800 crore. However, Sterlite also carries the Goa Tamnar project, awarded in 2018 and still under construction in April 2026. That project has been delayed for eight years, primarily due to forest and wildlife clearance bottlenecks in Goa and Karnataka. It remains the sector’s most visible example of execution risk in ecologically sensitive corridors.

IndiGrid has added the Morena Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Phase I project valued at approximately Rs 1,700 crore to its portfolio. This is its first major standalone pooling station project beyond transmission augmentation. IndiGrid is also executing the Ratle-Kiru hydroelectric project evacuation scheme worth about Rs 1,470 crore in the difficult terrain of Jammu and Kashmir.

GR Infra represents the Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC)-to-owner transition enabled by the TBCB regime. Contractors with strong construction capabilities are becoming asset owners. GR Infra has won three renewable energy integration projects in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, totalling approximately Rs 5,000 crore.

Tata Power has three major projects under construction. The Eastern Region Expansion Scheme-39 is valued at over Rs 2,800 crore. The Eastern Region Expansion Scheme-34 at Paradeep is worth over Rs 2,500 crore. Additionally, the Bikaner Complex Part C project in Rajasthan adds another Rs 2,440 crore to its portfolio, indicating a broader geographical presence beyond the eastern region.

The execution reality  

The data indicate that the primary constraints on transmission construction in India are systemic, RoW, forest clearance, and land acquisition, rather than developer-specific execution capability. 

Right of Way (RoW) issues appear in approximately 60% of active projects, regardless of the developer. Tata Power’s Bikaner to Neemrana II line has 34 RoW locations held up across Rajasthan and Haryana. The project had multiple conductor thefts in Rajasthan affecting progress. DRAIPL’s Merta II to Barmer I line shows villager protests over the cutting of Khejri trees, a politically sensitive issue in Rajasthan. Adani’s Navinal Mundra and Jamnagar projects show persistent RoW challenges in tribal land areas. PowerGrid’s Siwani to Jind line had foundation work halted due to pending rate finalisation.

Forest clearances remain the single largest driver of schedule slippages across the sector. The transition from Stage I to Stage II approval under the Forest Conservation Act remains difficult for all developers. Adani’s KPS2 to Halvad line has 266 hectares of forest clearance pending at the recommendation stage. Adani’s KPS3 to Lakadia line has 318 hectares of forest clearance that received Stage I approval only in April 2026. Sterlite’s South Olpad to Boisar II line has 134 hectares in Gujarat and 180 hectares in Maharashtra requiring clearance, with Stage II approval granted only recently. PowerGrid’s Beawar to Dausa line has a 5.58-hectare forest patch where working permission has been pending since March 2025.

The Goa Tamnar project is the most extreme case. Awarded to Sterlite in 2018, it remained under construction in April 2026, entirely due to forest and wildlife clearances in Goa and Karnataka. The project remarks note that the Karnataka government linked the forest proposal to a separate long-pending state project, and a request has been made to delink them.

Land acquisition bottlenecks affect all developers equally. PowerGrid’s South Olpad Gas Insulated Substation (GIS) project requires 107 acres of private land. As of April 2026, none had been acquired. Adani’s South Kalamb substation requires 350 acres that are still under procurement. DRAIPL’s Merta II substation has acquired roughly half the required land. No developer appears to have fully resolved land acquisition challenges.

The commissioning story that complicates the narrative

While the under-construction pipeline shows private players gaining ground, the commissioning data shows PowerGrid continuing to dominate project delivery. In the financial year ending March 2026, PowerGrid commissioned 10 of the 16 major TBCB projects completed. That represents a 63% share of commissioned volume.

PowerGrid commissioned 4,765 circuit km of transmission lines and 72,055 MVA of transformation capacity in FY26, significantly exceeding its additions in the previous year. Key commissions included the KPS2 substation, the KPS3 substation, the Ahmedabad New substation, the Narela GIS substation, and the Bhadla III New substation, among the most complex substation projects in India’s grid history.

System availability remained at 99.84%, while collection efficiency stood at 101.2%. These operational metrics set a benchmark that private players will eventually need to match as their assets become operational.

The contrast is evident. PowerGrid is commissioning its older and larger pipeline faster than it is winning new projects. Private players are winning new projects at an accelerating pace, but have yet to demonstrate commissioning capability at a comparable scale. The next few years will determine which trend proves more consequential.

What the forward-looking targets indicate

For transmission lines, the central sector, effectively PowerGrid, targeted approximately 10,263 circuit km of commissioning in FY26. For FY27, that target declines to 4,799 circuit km, a reduction of 53%. For substation capacity, the central sector targeted 1,13,005 MVA of commissioning in FY26. For FY27, that target declines to 58,900 MVA, a reduction of 48%.

The private sector presents a different trajectory. For substation capacity, private players targeted 35,505 MVA of commissioning in FY26. For FY27, that target rises to 46,815 MVA, representing a 32% increase.

These targets are not guarantees. Many projects will miss planned commissioning timelines, as the sector’s history demonstrates. However, the direction is evident. PowerGrid’s planned commissioning volume declines sharply in FY27, while private players’ planned commissioning volume continues to rise.

This is a natural consequence of the flow of new project awards over the past few years. The commissioning performance of FY28 and FY29 will provide a clearer indication of whether private players can execute at the scale they are now winning. 

The HVDC battleground

Current sector planning and bidding data indicate 22 HVDC schemes aggregating approximately 127 GW under planning and bidding stages. This is the most strategically significant segment of the transmission market, and the data suggests a more competitive environment than in any other segment.

PowerGrid has the single largest HVDC project in the under-construction pipeline. The Khavda Phase V Part A project is an 800 kV Line Commutated Converter (LCC) bipole from KPS2 to Nagpur valued at over Rs 24,000 crore. As of April 2026, civil progress at the Nagpur terminal stood at only 12%, reflecting early-stage land acquisition and engineering work. The line itself shows only 562 tower locations surveyed out of a total of 3,150, with significant forest clearances pending in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.

Adani has won the Rajasthan Phase III Part I HVDC project valued at over Rs 22,000 crore. This is an 800 kV LCC bipole from Bhadla to Fatehpur. Land acquisition in Rajasthan has largely been completed, although some stay-order-related complications remain, while forest clearances in three states are still pending at Stage I.

Together, these two players now hold a near-duopoly in the most complex and capital-intensive segment of the transmission market. Their combined HVDC under-construction value exceeds Rs 46,000 crore.

The outcomes of the next 22 HVDC schemes under planning will shape the transmission landscape for the next decade. If private players continue securing a significant share of these projects, the market structure by 2030 could look materially different from today. 

What the shift actually means

Several conclusions emerge from the data.

First, the transmission market is becoming more competitive. The entry of DRAIPL, SCL, and HGIEL has expanded the competitive landscape. Adani’s ability to win large and complex HVDC projects demonstrates that private players can compete at the highest level of technical complexity. The under-construction pipeline data showing 24% growth in private portfolios within a single year is unambiguous.

Second, PowerGrid remains the dominant executor. Commissioning 63% of all TBCB projects completed in FY26, maintaining 99.84% system availability, and holding a pipeline of approximately Rs 1.7 lakh crore in works-in-hand do not indicate operational decline. The company’s execution capabilities remain the strongest in the sector.

Third, the primary constraints on transmission construction are systemic. RoW, forest clearance, and land acquisition affect every developer. The Goa Tamnar project’s eight-year construction period serves as a warning for private players winning projects in ecologically sensitive regions. The sector’s ability to address these bottlenecks will matter more than any individual developer’s execution capability.

Fourth, the next two to three years will be decisive. Private players now need to demonstrate that they can commission the large pipelines they have accumulated. PowerGrid, meanwhile, needs to demonstrate that it can replenish its pipeline through new wins, particularly in the HVDC segment, where the next phase of India’s grid architecture will be shaped.

The metrics to watch

Three indicators will determine whether the FY26 data reflects a temporary rebalancing or a more durable structural shift.

First, new HVDC award outcomes. Of the 22 schemes under planning, the first few awards will be particularly important. If private players secure a majority of these projects, the competitive landscape could shift materially.

Second, private project completion timelines. If delays of 12-18 months become common across the large private portfolios in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the case for private execution parity will weaken. If private players commission projects on schedule, their competitive position will strengthen considerably.

Third, PowerGrid’s ability to secure HVDC projects. The company has the balance sheet, technical expertise, and operational track record. If it fails to win a significant share of the upcoming HVDC bids, that would indicate a meaningful shift in market structure.

The transmission market is entering a more competitive phase. The question is not whether PowerGrid is losing its position. The more important question is how this emerging competitive equilibrium will function.  

Power Peak Digest welcomes comments, feedback, and requests for further information at info@powerpeakdigest.com