EIA forecasts solar power growth will drive US power generation up to 2027

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that solar power will lead the growth in US power generation through 2027. 

In its latest short-term energy outlook, the EIA estimates utilities and independent power producers will add 26GW of solar capacity in 2025 and 22GW in 2026, following a record 37GW added in 2024.

Wind power is also expected to grow, with 8GW forecasted in 2025 and 9GW in 2026. Renewable generation will rise by 12% to 1,058 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025, and by 8% to 1,138 billion kWh in 2026. In 2024, renewables accounted for the second-largest share of US power generation, reaching 945 billion kWh, a 9% increase from 2023.

Nuclear power generation is also expected to increase, with a 2% rise to 796 billion kWh in 2025 and 1% to 800 billion kWh in 2026, driven by new units at the Vogtle plant and the restart of the Palisades plant.

However, growth in natural gas-fired capacity has slowed, adding only 1GW in 2024. Coal generation is expected to remain stable at 640 billion kWh through 2026. Coal retirements are projected to accelerate, with 11GW to be retired in 2025 and an additional 4GW in 2026. This follows 3GW of retirements in 2024, the smallest annual reduction since 2011.