Ukraine’s energy infrastructure faces its toughest challenge yet as winter approaches, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Russian missile and drone attacks have increasingly targeted Ukraine’s generation and transmission assets, causing more sustained damage than in previous phases of the war. The report, titled Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter, highlights the extensive damage and warns of a potential 6GW energy shortfall during peak demand, despite efforts to restore nuclear plants and import electricity from the EU.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol praised Ukraine’s resilience over the past two winters but warned that this winter will be its “sternest test yet.” Peak power demand is expected to reach 18.5GW, significantly higher than the 12GW in the summer, and the use of diesel generators, which helped in warmer months, will likely fall short during the heating season, when temperatures could plummet as low as -20°C.
Ukraine’s gas supply situation is also precarious, with the country needing to increase imports as Russian gas transit via Ukraine is set to end in January 2025, potentially raising costs due to higher transmission tariffs from central and eastern Europe. The IEA report adds that the risk of extended blackouts and limited heating could render parts of Ukraine uninhabitable, possibly causing a new wave of refugees.
In response to these challenges, DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy provider, has announced plans to invest €140 million ($155 million) in energy storage systems with 200MW of capacity to improve energy security ahead of the winter season.