Asia’s coal market split between rising domestic use and shrinking exports

Asia remains the largest producer of thermal coal, with China, India, and Indonesia driving output. Domestic consumption in these countries is set to grow, while the seaborne coal market faces a decline, according to Reuters.

Together, China, India, and Indonesia account for over 70% of global coal production. Their output has expanded in recent years to meet increasing energy needs. Outside these three, production in Australia, Russia, the United States, and South Africa mainly supplies international markets.

At the CT Asia conference in Bali, officials from India and Indonesia forecast higher domestic coal use and discussed new applications, including chemical production via gasification. Analysts at the event also said China, responsible for about 60% of global coal output, will continue using coal to reduce reliance on imported oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Chinese coal production reached 4.04 billion metric tons in 2024, up from just over 2 billion tons in 2006. Production for the first eight months of 2025 rose 3% to 3.17 billion tons compared with the same period last year. India surpassed 1 billion tons in 2024 and is expected to reach 1.2–1.4 billion tons soon, aided by private mining expansions. Indonesia set a record at 836 million tons in 2024, above the government target of 710 million tons. Output is projected to fall in 2025 due to lower Chinese imports and higher adoption of renewables.

Seaborne coal exporters face challenges because China and India, the largest producers and buyers, prioritise domestic supply. Other export markets, including Japan and South Korea, may see reduced demand. Japan is restarting nuclear plants and increasing solar generation, while LNG supplies from Qatar and the United States are expected to make coal less competitive by 2027.