India’s solar potential needs revision as installations touch 111 GW

India’s installed solar power capacity reached 110.9 GW by June 2025, out of a total renewable capacity of 237.5 GW, according to a commentary published by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). The authors argue that India should reassess its solar potential estimates, which remain based on outdated assumptions and data from 2010 and 2011.

The current official estimate of 748 GWp of solar potential, calculated by the National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE) in 2014, uses data from the Wasteland Atlas of 2010 and Census 2011. This estimate is based on using 3 per cent of India’s wasteland with an average module efficiency of 15 per cent. Rooftop potential was derived using urbanisation figures from the 2011 Census.

ORF notes that these inputs do not reflect advancements in solar cell efficiency, changes in land use, or updated remote sensing capabilities. A paper by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) suggests that ground-mounted solar potential alone could exceed 4,000 GW, with floating solar offering an additional 100 GW.

To enable accurate planning, the authors call for modernised assessment methods that include parameters such as solar irradiance, terrain gradient, climate impact, proximity to substations, and transmission access. Data from sources like ISRO’s National Remote Sensing Centre, Global Solar Atlas, and the Central Electricity Authority can support this effort.

Updated estimates could unlock new investment opportunities, guide state-level planning, and strengthen domestic manufacturing across the solar value chain. The authors also highlight the potential for green jobs, improved recycling ecosystems, and common infrastructure development once India’s solar potential is revised and mapped.