Author: PPD Team Date: 25/03/2025
China has missed a key carbon emissions target, casting doubt on its ability to meet long-term climate goals. The country’s carbon intensity, emissions per unit of GDP, fell 3.4% in 2024, short of the 3.9% target set by Beijing, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
This setback also puts China behind on its broader goal of cutting carbon intensity by 18% between 2020 and 2025. Under its “dual targets,” President Xi Jinping has pledged to peak emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
China’s progress is closely watched worldwide. As the largest polluter, responsible for about 30% of global emissions, but also the biggest investor in renewable energy, its actions are crucial to keeping global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That goal is already in doubt after 2024 became the first year on record to exceed the limit.
Carbon intensity offers insight into China’s decarbonization efforts. While the economy grew 5% in 2024, electricity demand rose 6.8%, and carbon emissions increased by 0.8%. The push for industrial growth after the COVID-19 slowdown led to a spike in energy demand, said Muyi Yang, an energy analyst at Ember.
Extreme weather has made things worse. Record heatwaves disrupted hydropower production, forcing China to rely more on coal. However, Beijing has made significant progress in clean energy. In 2024, wind and solar met 14.5% of China’s total energy demand, with hydropower contributing another 13.4%. About 75% of the country’s energy demand growth was met by renewables—equivalent to Germany’s annual consumption, said David Fishman of the Lantau Group.
Government policies have driven this shift. In 2021, China launched the world’s largest carbon trading market, allowing firms with lower emissions to sell unused allowances to high polluters. Xi Jinping has emphasized “ecological civilization,” calling for a transition to high-end, green manufacturing.
China’s upcoming five-year plan, set to be released later this year, will outline new carbon targets for 2026-2030. Experts say the country is on track to peak emissions before 2030, but phasing out coal remains uncertain. Structural reforms in China’s energy sector are needed soon, said Yao Zhe of Greenpeace East Asia.
“Chinese policymakers support clean technology, but deeper reforms keep getting pushed back. If these delays continue beyond 2035, it will be a real concern,” Yao said.