New Zealand at risk of missing emissions targets amid policy shift

New Zealand is at “significant risk” of missing its 2030 and 2035 domestic emissions reduction targets, according to the Climate Commission. The country is shifting its focus from environmental policies to supporting heavily emitting sectors to boost its economy.

The Climate Change Commission’s recent report indicates that while New Zealand is on track to meet its first 2022–25 emissions budget, future emissions budgets and reduction targets are in jeopardy. This shift follows the election of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in 2023, who reversed the country’s ban on oil and gas exploration and promoted mining operations.

The government aims to increase exports and support the economy, which Resources Minister Shane Jones described as facing “the worst set of circumstances.” In March, New Zealand’s economy showed year-on-year growth of just 0.3%, with exports contributing significantly to its revenue.

In June, the Luxon government proposed the Crown Minerals Act Amendment Bill, reversing the 2018 ban on offshore oil and gas exploration. This legislation, expected to take effect in late 2024, aims to decrease coal imports, increase fuel exports, and keep energy prices low. The government also plans to double the country’s mineral exports by 2045 with a NZ$2 billion ($1.18 billion) investment to open ten new mining facilities.

The new mining policy will streamline small-scale gold mining activities and fast-track consenting processes for new operations, aiming to counter previous environmental protection measures. Jones emphasized the economic necessity of these changes.

Despite New Zealand’s reliance on renewable energy for 80% of its electricity, only 30% of its total energy consumption comes from renewables. Environmental groups fear that increased oil and gas exploration will hinder further renewable energy development. The Green Party opposes the policy shift, arguing for a focus on clean energy to sustain the economy.

The government is working on a climate plan to include more tree planting, increased renewable energy supply, and investment in clean technologies. However, critics remain sceptical, particularly after Air New Zealand dropped its 2030 emission targets due to higher prices of green fuel.

Sara Walton, co-director of the Climate Change Research Network at the University of Otago, stressed the importance of emissions reduction for international competitiveness. Critics also worry that expanded mining operations could lead to harmful seabed and deep-sea mining practices.