US faces 100-fold rise in blackout risk by 2030: DOE report

A new report from the US Department of Energy (DOE) warns that blackouts could rise 100 times by 2030 if the country continues to retire firm power capacity without timely replacement. The report highlights the urgent need to add dependable generation as the US grid faces surging electricity demand.

The Report on Evaluating US Grid Reliability and Security fulfills Section 3(b) of President Trump’s Executive Order focused on strengthening grid security. It presents a methodology for identifying regions at high risk of outages and guiding federal intervention in power planning.

According to the DOE, allowing 104 GW of firm generation to retire without sufficient replacement could result in annual outage durations exceeding 800 hours. Today, most parts of the country face only single-digit outage hours each year.

The growing risk is tied to the rising number of AI data centres, reindustrialisation efforts, and demand from advanced manufacturing. The report argues that these sectors require uninterrupted, round-the-clock power, which intermittent sources like solar and wind cannot provide on their own.

Despite plans to add 209 GW of generation by 2030, only 22 GW will come from firm baseload sources. Even without any plant retirements, several US regions could face a 30-fold increase in blackout risk. The report underscores that current planning queues are insufficient to ensure reliable supply.

DOE Secretary Chris Wright criticised past policies that accelerated the shutdown of baseload plants. He said, “The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction… In the coming years, America’s reindustrialisation and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of reliable and uninterrupted power.”

The DOE calls for modernising how resource adequacy is evaluated. Traditional peak-hour tests fall short, especially as grids become more interdependent. The report recommends new metrics that include the frequency, duration, and scale of outages.

Key takeaways from the report include:

• The status quo is unsustainable. Current schedules for retiring firm capacity without adequate replacements will result in major reliability failures within five years.
• Electricity demand is accelerating. AI and advanced manufacturing are adding unprecedented pressure on the grid.
• Firm generation is critical. Without a stronger pipeline of reliable capacity, outages will rise significantly.
• Planning tools need reform. The DOE urges adoption of integrated models that reflect modern grid dynamics and stress scenarios.

The report calls for a renewed focus on energy addition and reliability, cautioning that America’s economic future and technological leadership are at risk if grid stability is not addressed.