KSERC provisionally approves 10-year Resource Adequacy Plan

On 30 December 2025, the Kerala State Electricity Regulatory Commission (KSERC) issued an order provisionally approving the Resource Adequacy Plan for Kerala for 2025-26 to 2035-36. The plan, prepared by the Central Electricity Authority at the request of Kerala State Electricity Board Limited, was approved subject to specific observations and a requirement for technical review.

Demand projections and proposed capacity mix
The CEA study projects Kerala’s energy requirement to grow from 34,008 Million Units in 2025-26 to 55,996 Million Units in 2035-36. Peak demand is expected to rise from 6,204 MW to 8,926 MW in the same period. To meet reliability standards, it recommends a contracted capacity mix of about 18,348 MW by 2035-36, including additions from coal, solar, wind, Battery Energy Storage Systems, Distributed Renewable Energy, and Round-The-Clock power. The study also identifies a Renewable Purchase Obligation deficit emerging from 2029-30 and rising to 16.02% by 2035-36.

Commission flags key concerns in methodology and inputs
The regulator noted that this is the first long-term resource adequacy exercise for Kerala but raised concerns over assumptions used. It observed that demand projections, influenced by unusually high summer consumption in 2023-24, could lead to excess capacity and burden consumers financially. It also flagged inclusion of unapproved long-term contracts, a 360 MW gas plant in inputs, anomalies in daily demand profiles, higher capital costs for external renewable projects, and use of a Central RPO trajectory instead of the KSERC-mandated one.

Direction for revised study using STELLAR software
KSERC directed KSEBL to conduct a revised study using the new indigenously developed STELLAR software, incorporating corrected demand projections, validated input data, and the applicable RPO trajectory. The updated analysis must be presented by the second week of January 2026. The Commission clarified that provisional approval does not imply blanket approval of additional procurement and that separate approvals are required under tariff regulations.

Provisional approval linked to reform compliance
The Commission’s order provisionally approves the CEA plan while conditioning it on the upcoming review. The approval also helps Kerala meet reform requirements linked to enhanced borrowing space, where resource adequacy planning carries a score value. KSERC is also in the process of notifying its own detailed Resource Adequacy Regulations, which will govern future planning cycles.

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