The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised its projections for the global expansion of nuclear power, marking the fourth consecutive year of capacity growth. As of the end of 2023, global nuclear capacity stood at 371.5 GW, with 413 reactors in operation.
In the IAEA’s high-case scenario, nuclear capacity could rise to 950 GW by 2050, more than doubling current levels, with small modular reactors (SMRs) contributing 25%. In the low-case scenario, capacity is expected to grow by 40% to 514 GW, with SMRs contributing 6%.
The high-case scenario hinges on factors such as supportive national policies, investments, regulatory collaboration, and advancements in nuclear technologies, including fusion. The IAEA estimates also account for reactor lifetimes, power uprates, shutdowns, and future construction projects.
The IAEA noted growing global interest in nuclear energy, with 30 “newcomer countries” exploring nuclear power. Existing nuclear nations are extending the lifespans of their reactors, such as Japan’s Mihama plant, which was cleared for a 60-year operation.
At COP28 in Dubai, nuclear energy was featured in the Global Stocktake, and 20 countries, led by France, pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.