India’s power sector to reach USD 280 billion by FY30: Jefferies

According to a September report by Jefferies, India’s power generation and transmission sectors are expected to grow 2.2 times, reaching USD 280 billion between FY24 and FY30. This surge comes as the country enters a phase of capex-driven GDP growth, driving a rise in power demand.

The report predicts a more than 7% annual growth in power consumption, with total generation capacity needing to increase from 442 GW in FY24 to 673 GW by FY30 to avoid shortages. Thermal power, crucial for grid stability, will increase capacity, with plant load factors (PLF) expected to surpass peak levels from FY08 by FY28.

Thermal power plants, currently operating at 65-70% PLF, are critical to meeting growing demand. By FY25, PLF is expected to hit 74%, and thermal capacity additions are projected to rise to 17 GW annually, up from 2-5 GW.

However, peak power deficits are becoming more frequent due to underinvestment, highlighting the need for accelerated capacity growth and investment in transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure.

The renewable energy sector is also poised for rapid growth, with annual capacity additions expected to increase 3.5 times between FY24 and FY27 compared to FY10-20. India aims to achieve 450 GW of renewable energy by 2030.

In the transmission sector, the bid pipeline has grown seven-fold in three years, rising from less than Rs 150 billion in February 2021 to Rs 1 trillion today. This expansion is driven by the government’s focus on renewable energy, green hydrogen, data centres, and EV infrastructure.